Is the price of bitcoin close to a top of the cycle? – 5 indicators that will help entrepreneurs decide

Key takeaways:

• The tops of the Bitcoin market cycle are known to be difficult in time, but the integration of technical and behavior indicators can offer strong signals.

• MVRV-Z’s score, PI cycle top indicator, trade volume, Puell Multiple, and exchange inflows accurately predict the leading prices of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (Btc) cow When it comes to the final phase of the current market cycle – a dramatic final rally followed by a sharp correction and, ultimately, a bear market. For many, this may be the long -awaited peak of the past four years, and the main players are preparing accordingly.

Since late 2024, bitcoin whale accumulation has grown. Glassnode Data It is shown that the number of addresses holding more than 100 BTC has jumped nearly 14%, reaching 18,200-a level not seen since 2017. The largest players in the market appear to be positioning for what could be the final run-up of this cycle.

However, riding the rally is trickier than appearance and knowing when to come out is difficult. High -price highs fuels fuels Fomo, driving investors to buy top, to deal only with painful drawdowns or even Destruction.

So, how can entrepreneurs and investors see the top before the market goes back?

The leading markers of the bitcoin cycle

There are many technical and onchain indicators, such as MVRV (market value in realized value) Z-Score, PI cycle Top, and trading volume trends, have historically reliable signing when Bitcoin is near.

The MVRV-Z mark compares to the value of the Bitcoin market to its realized value and arranges for volatility. A high z-score suggests Bitcoin is significantly extremely appreciated relative on the basis of historical costs. When this indicator is in a high history, the subsequent downward trend at bitcoin prices is likely.

The PI cycle top tracks BTC’s dynamic prices using moving averages. When the 111-day transfer of average (111-sma) crosses above twice to the 350-day average (350-smax2), it signed excess heating. In other words, when the short -term trend gets up to the long -term trajectory, a top of the market is on.

Historically, all of the previous Bitcoin Bull runs began with a well-known advancement with the MVRV Z-Score, and ended with 111-smma crossing longer trend.

In addition, lower trading volumes during price increases can be a warning sign, often signing a weakening momentum and potential for a return -to -back. The on-balance volume (OBV), which registers a combined volume flow, is an important measure for monitoring this process. When OBVs vary from price action, this is often an early signal return.

The second leg of 2021 Bull Run is a great example. While BTC prices hit a higher $ 68,000 (compared to the previous all-time high $ 63,170), trade volumes moved in another direction, decreasing from 710,000 BTC to 628,000 BTC. It creates a difference -bearish variety between price and volume, suggesting that fewer market participants support the rally -a classic sign of the waning momentum.

Income metrics

As the tops of the market cycle approach, long-term holders and Bitcoin miners often begin to lock in revenue. Some important metrics that can monitor it is the multiple puell and exchange flow.

The Puell Multiple indicators look at the income of miners associated with the 365-day average. High readings indicate miners can start selling aggressively, and are often seen near the tops of the market.

Large flows in exchanges are usually signs of distribution, as investors are preparing to sell their coins.

Individuals, these indicators can mark various changes in market trends. Combined, they are often aligned with the tops of the cycle.

Related: Sorry Bear – Bitcoin analysis removes $ 107k BTC Price Double Top

The 15% rule

Historical observations on price activity can also be used. Crypto market analyst Cole Garner shared His exit playbook based on the behavior of whales. His roadmap includes three steps:

1. Euphoria. Bitcoin has been moving vertically for weeks, with a massive $ 10,000+ day -day candle.

2. Whiplash. Bitcoin experiences sharp correction of the bull cycle. The curved parabolic trendline supported the rally is broken – a clear signal that the top is likely. Meanwhile, altcoins and meme tokens can continue pumping a bit.

3. Pleasure. Measure 15% below the high time of Bitcoin. That’s the seller zone. Ordering books on major exchanges often display a wall of seller orders around this level – an institution’s likely exit point.

According to Garner, 15% (or 16%) rules work not only in crypto but also traditional markets.

There is no one indicator that can determine the exact moment to exit, especially in a macro environment. But when many signals are aligned, they are difficult to ignore. The final leg of a bitcoin bull market is exciting, but knowing when music can stop is key to locking revenue.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be done as legal or investment advice. The views, attitudes, and opinions expressed here are unique and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of the cointelegraph.