Bitcoin (Btc) failed to maintain levels above $ 85,000 on March 14, despite a 1.9% gain in the S&P 500 index. More importantly, it has been more than a week since Bitcoin last exchanged for $ 90,000, motivating entrepreneurs to ask if the bull market is truly done and how long the sale of pressure will continue.
Basic Basic Basis of Bitcoin Rebound from Bearish levels
From a perspective of derivatives, Bitcoin’s metrics showed upness despite a 30% collapse from the entire time high of $ 109,354 on January 20. The Bitcoin basis rate, which measures the premium of monthly contracts in the area markets, recovered at a healthy level after a short sign Bearish Sentiment on March 13.
Bitcoin 2-month futures contracts annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.CH
Entrepreneurs usually require a 5% to 10% annual premium to compensate for longer periods of negotiations. A basic rate below this threshold has signed a weak demand from leveraged buyers. While the current 5% rate was less than 8% recorded two weeks ago, it remains within the neutral territory.
The middle banks will eventually boost the price of BTC
Bitcoin price action closely monitors the S&P 500, suggesting that factors driving a risk of investor risk may not be directly tied to the top cryptocurrency.
However, it also challenges the idea of Bitcoin as an unresponsive property, as its price behavior aligns closer to traditional markets, at least for a short time.
S&P 500 futures (left) compared to Bitcoin/USD. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
If the price of bitcoin remains entirely dependent on the stock market, which is under pressure because of fear of a Upside down economyInvestors are likely to maintain a reduction of exposure to risk assets and moving towards short -term bonds for safety.
However, central banks are expected to implement stimulus measures to prevent a backwards, and the deficiencies of property such as Bitcoin are likely to be worse as a result.
According to CME Fedwatch Tools, markets prote less than 40% odds for US interest rates below 3.75% from the current 4.25% baseline before the July 30 FOMC meeting.
However, Bitcoin should get the $ 90,000 level once the S&P 500 pairs are some of its recent losses. But in a worst case situation, the panic sale of risk assets can continue.
Under these conditions, BTC is likely to retain underperforming over the next few months, especially if the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) spot continues to experience meaningful and The long -term net flows.
Bitcoin derivatives do not show signs of stress
Professional entrepreneurs do not actively use Bitcoin options for currently, as shown by the 25% Delta skew metric. This suggests that few market participants expect the BTC price to re -retest a $ 76,900 level anytime soon.
Bitcoin Options 1-month 25% Delta Skew (Put-Call). Source: Laevitas.CH
Bullish feelings usually lead to put (sell) trading options in a 6% or higher discount. In contrast, bearish periods cause the indicator to increase in a 6% premium, as seen shortly on March 10 and March 12. However, 25% Delta Skew has recently remained within the neutral scope, reflecting a healthy Derivatives market.
To better gauge entrepreneurs, checking BTC Margin markets are important. Unlike derivatives contracts, which are always balanced between longs (buyers) and shorts (seller), margin markets allow entrepreneurs to borrow stablecoins to buy Bitcoin spot. Similarly, Bearish entrepreneurs can borrow BTC to open short positions, betting on a price collapse.
Bitcoin margin long-to-short ratio to OKX. Source: Okx
The Bitcoin long-to-short margin ratio in OKX shows longs outweighing shorts 18 times. Historically, excessive confidence has pushed this ratio to the top 40 times, while the levels below five times favored the long ones were seen as bearish. The current sentiment of the ratio ratio on January 30, when Bitcoin exchanged over $ 100,000.
There are no signs of stress or bearishness in the Bitcoin derivatives and margin market, which promotes, especially after more than $ 920 million in leveraged long futures contracts are liquid in seven days ending March 13.
Therefore, because the risks of retreating are easy, the price of Bitcoin is likely to recover the $ 90,000 level in the coming weeks, given the stability of the investor’s sentiment.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be done as legal or investment advice. The views, attitudes, and opinions expressed here are unique and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of the cointelegraph.
