Bitcoin (BTC) has changed a lot in four years, away from itself from shady centralized creatures such as FTX and emerging as plat du jourr to institutional investors. However, the trip this month returned to six figures amidst the cooling tensions of cooling the cooling presents a number of warning signs that appear to be similar to the high cycle of 2021.
In 2021, Bitcoin made a historic record high in April of $ 65,000, which in conjunction with a fuzzy activity from Michael Saylor’s (then named) microstrategy and the IPO of Coinbase (coin). The excitement was that smart entrepreneurs would capitalize, shortening the big news and riding the BTC up to a final bottom of just $ 28,000 for two months.
Then, as the entire industry began to prepare for a long bear market or even the end of Bitcoin (note the ban on Chinese mining), the BTC became the tail and started a rally that had not stopped for four months. The relentless advances in this reversal resulted in a new record of $ 69,000, despite all the on-chain metrics pointing toward an outcome.
Interestingly, the current price action at this time around is accompanied by the same on-chain metrics that tell a similar story about a potential double top.
A deeper dive
The first of these metrics was RSI weekly, which shows three strikes of difference -Bearish variety from March 2024, December 2024 and May 2025. The difference -Bearish’s difference is where the RSI is trending on the downside as the price is trending on the reverse.
This, in conjunction with trade volumes lower compared to the initial transfer above $ 100K, suggests that this swing momentum is higher. Volumes are across both crypto and institutional areas, with volume in CME BTC futures failing to fulfill 35,000 contracts over three over the past four weeks. The initial transfer has seen volumes that regularly exceed 65,000 contracts, which hit more than 85,000 on three occasions. A CME contract costs 5 Bitcoins ($ 514,000).
As in 2021, open interest also moves from price action, currently opening interest of 13% less than the initial drive at $ 109K in January while the price is only 5.8% lower. Four years ago when Bitcoin hit $ 69,000, the open interest was 15.6% less than the initial $ 65,000 high despite the price of 6.6% higher.
What does this mean?
The similarity with 2021 is clear but it is advisable to note that the crypto market structure is completely different than four years ago. Most thanks to Michael Saylor’s approach and a growing number of corporate copycats that ramping up BTC acquisitions at any cost, gaining interest in the institutional is higher than this cycle. There is also an element of spot bitcoin ETFs, which allows intuitional investors and companies to get BTC in a traditional regulated area.
As learned in 2021, on-chain metrics can be an inaccurate measure of price forecasting action. It is possible that the BTC is destroying a new record high after Trump inevitably disclosed the details of a US Bitcoin treasury, but it could also be a “sell the news event,” where entrepreneurs have tried to achieve emotional purchases from non -generated retail investors.
The indicators suggest that while a new record high can be developed as in 2021, the momentum of this transition is missing and the analysts who bravely call $ 150k or even $ 200k target price It could be for a nasty waking up once the sale-off begins. Bitcoin enters more than one year bear market by the end of 2021, resulting in great disappearance throughout the industry and the Imploding multiple trading companiescentralized lending companies and defi protocols.
At this time, the market has many other elements to consider if the prices begin to leak. Interestingly, MSTR’s leveraged BTC leveraged position, the emerging BTC defi industry that has $ 6.3 Billon in total amount locked )
