It turns out that polymarket is a crystalline ball, which can predict some events with almost 90 %, according to the sand dunes dashboard collected by the data scientist in New York City Alex McCulo.
MCCULLough studied the historical data of Polymarkt and removed markets with a possibility of more than 90 % or less than 10 % after the results were already known but not yet settled, to maintain an analysis analysis, according to the summary of the sand dunes dungeon.
McCulo’s research has found that polymarkty is a little but constantly exaggerating the possibilities of events across most domains, and perhaps due to prejudices such as bias of commitment, herd mentality, liquidity decreased, and the preference of participants for high -risk bets.
McColeu explained in an interview with many results that are unlikely, which makes predicting Polymark’s The Oracle Blog.
McCullough gives an example that Gavin Newsom becomes president (a question of $ 54 million in size) during the recent elections to show that long -term polymers markets often include clearly predictable results, such as newsom other than winning, which enhances the platform accuracy numbers for these long -term predictions.
In contrast, the sports markets face to face, which have severe less results such as the long -term candidates, and a more balanced distribution, representing a clearer representation of predictive accuracy.
Sports is a growing sector for Polymarket, where approximately $ 4.5 billion in team adolescence has been bet on the results of the American Professional League, MLB, Champions League and Premier League. According to data data polymarket analysis.
The results of McCulo on the accuracy of the polymers are likely to be important in Ottawa, where Polymark offers That’s the leader of the new liberal party, Mark Carne Now he has great progress On his rival, governor Pierre Pollyfer, More than the voting complexes show.
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