Up until the last hour of the Netherlands’ October 29 election, Polymarket entrepreneurs were convinced that Geert Wilders’ Nationalist Party for Freedom would cruise to victory.
The market is barely blooming as the Social Liberal Democraten of Rob Jetten 66 (Democrats 66) climbed in every major poll. Then, within minutes of the first exit poll, D66’s odds exploded from 5% to 100%, wiping out millions in overconfident PVV.
With 98% of the votes counted, D66 and PVV are tied Expected to take 26 seats In the 150-seat Lower House of Parliament, Reuters reported on Thursday. That was a loss of 11 seats for the PVV.
Kalshi is no betterwith businessmen overpricing wilders’ PVV until election day.
Data from Polymarket Analytics suggesting that markets have become a test of conviction rather than vision as traders cling to losing PVV bets that are out of belief. Many held static positions for weeks while a smaller group of data-driven participants quietly benefited from the late D66 surge.
In the recent presidential election of the United States, all kinds of theories appeared about why Polymarket is giving a premium to now-president Donald Trump. Perhaps it is the participation of crypto holders, with a tendency to lean right.
One theory is that foreign currency is trying to influence the vote by skewing markets. This theory was reinforced when a French national using the handle “Theo” spread pro-trump and pro-Republican bets on a number of accounts.
Theo, it turns out, has no political agenda, as he said in Wall Street Journal. Instead, the self-described wealthy banker decided the national poll had gaps and instead commissioned himself, which involved pollsters asking respondents who they thought their neighbors would vote for.
The survey confirmed his thesis that the polls were wrong about Trump’s chance of victory, and he was confident enough to put $30 million.
But for the Dutch election, there was no Theo. Many traders believe that they act as effective counterparties with liquidity at the exit.
Accounts like “Whitelivesmatter” – whose username reflects their political views – poured thousands into the PVV contracts” yes “and never flinched, even though the ipsos and peil.nl polls moved clearly towards D66.
The positions have sat unchanged for weeks, according to Polymarket Analytics. It’s not a lack of information that dooms them, but a refusal to process it.
This static posture contrasts with traders like “Wisser” and “Ciro2”, who moved early on the late poll data and made six-figure profits from the same volatility crushing opposite PVV. These participants used the market as a rational actor, attempting to make money in trading, not a scoreboard for ideology.
Ultimately, prediction markets worked as mirrors, not predictors, reflecting the biases of their users. Where Theo used the poll to challenge the consensus, some entrepreneurs ignored it.
In a market with thin liquidity, the result is a real-time experiment in how markets can be rational in theory but irrational in practice, especially when conviction trumps curiosity.
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