Good morning, Asia. Here’s what makes news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a sunny summary of the leading stories of US time and a general measures of movements and market reviews. For a detailed overall -analysis of US markets, see The Americans.
As Asia begins on its trading day, Bitcoin
was the trade above $ 104,500 and, despite a possible warfare in the Middle East, was somewhat flat in the day with neglect of market movement. In fact, on the last whole week, the BTC dropped only 2%, According to CoinDesk market data.
Analysts are debated if the current silence of the crypto market is a sign of strength or if something more specific is far away.
Three new reports this week from Cryptoquant, Glass node. In addition, retail participation is missing, and institutional players, from ETFs to whales, are now shaping the structure of the flows.
But it is a cryptoquant that flashes into the most urgent warning.
According to the June 19 report, the cryptoquant argued that the BTC could immediately revisit $ 92,000 support or even fall less than $ 81,000 if the demand continued to worsen.
Spot demand is still rising, but lower in trend. ETF flows have dropped more than 60% since April, while the whale accumulating is divided. Short-term holders, usually newer market participants, have poured approximately 800,000 BTC since late May.
Their indicator of the demanding momentum, which tracks the power of purchase of direction throughout the major cohorts, now reads a negative 2 million BTC, the lowest in cryptoquant dataset.
Glass nodeHowever, the same signals are seen and come to a less scary -terror conclusion.
In its weekly on-chain update, the firm acknowledged that the Bitcoin blockchain was “quiet,” meaning that transactions counts dropped, the fees were minimal, and the miner’s income was conquered.
However, it suggests that this may not be a weakness, but rather a reflection of the network evolution. The volume of on-chain settlement remains high, but it is concentrated in large amounts, which suggests the chain is increasingly used by institutions and whales.
The derivatives market, glassnode notes, now dwarf on-chain activities, with futures and options that regularly exceed the 7x-16x area.
That shift has brought more sophisticated to -healing, better collateral skills, and an older, if not much frenetic, market structure.
French -based flowdesk, a market manufacturer and trading firm, has views that fall somewhere in between.
While noticed thinning altcoin flow and flat market volume, the June 19 update describes the market as “coiled,” not cracking.
Flowdesk highlights a climb to tokenized assets, such as gold supported (up to 56% in volume), stablecoin growth, and increasing RWA activity.
To them, low volatility can be calm before a breakout direction, which is not necessary downward.
But in the end, nothing seemed to hold a reliable map for what was ahead of.
Even the polymarket is unsure. Bettors provide a closely equal opportunity of BTC which drops to $ 90k in June or moved up to $ 115k-120k.
One thing is for sure: the tug-of-war between institutional activities and retail retailers are required to potentially open Bitcoin to dramatic moves on either side of the trade, which is likely to dictate the next chapter of the market.
Presto Research says that crypto treasury companies have less risk than you think
A new report from Presto Research has argued Crypto treasury companies (CTCs), such as strategy and metaplanet, are not only -leveraged Bitcoin ETF, but a new form of financial engineering with less risk than many investors.
The latest strategy increase, raising nearly $ 1 billion by perpetual preferred sharingShowing how BTC’s volatility can be used to the advantage of a giver.
These security, along with convertible bonds and sales of equity equity, allow CTCs to fund aggressive crypto accumulation without triggering the margin risk.
The presto points out that the BTC of the strategy is no longer –plug and metaplanet bonds are not safe, which means collateral liquidation, the main trigger in previous crypto blowups such as Celsius and three arrows, is mainly not here. That does not eliminate danger, but it changes its nature.
The real challenge, the presto argued, was not exposure to the crypto itself but the discipline to manage dilution, cash flow, and capital timing.
The measure of the “bitcoin yield” of the metaplanet, which measures the BTC each fully melted part, reflects focusing on the value of the shareholder.
As long as CTCs can manage financial mechanics behind their accumulation techniques, they will get NAV premiums such as high -growth companies in traditional markets. But if they make a mistake, the same tools that emit their increase can accelerate their fall.
Semler Scientific Maps Bold Plan holding 105,000 BTC by 2027
Semler Scientific (NASDAQ: SMLR) did not open One of the most aggressive roadmaps of Bitcoin accumulation in corporate history, announcing plans to hold 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, 42,000 by 2026, and a tedious 105,000 at the end of 2027.
The manufacturer of California-based medical device manufacturers, pivoted with a Bitcoin treasury approach last year, effectively trying to 24x the current bitcoin stash of 4,449 coins over the next 30 months.
It plans to do this with a mix of increasing equity, debt financing, and cash cash flow.
But the path forward is not guaranteed. Semler’s main mechanism for getting Bitcoin, which sells new shares under the AT-the-Market (ATM) program, relies on the company’s trade with a premium on the net asset (NAV) value (NAV).
According to data from the strategy-trackerThe MNAV of the semler is currently sitting at 0.859x, which means the market values the equity of the firm lower than BTC handling, effectively cutting the ability to raise accretive capital.
That dynamic made the semler a matter of a paradox in the world of Bitcoin Treasury: a consumer of high convincing without a premium to fund its purchase. Although Bitcoin progressed all the time high over $ 100,000, Semler’s sharing dropped nearly 40% in the year.
Market Movements:
- BTC: Bitcoin remains stuck below $ 105k despite strong ETF flow, with repeated resistance to $ 105,150 and signs of institutional climbing climbing through short-term bearish momentum and macro volatility.
- Eth: Ethereum found support for $ 2,490 after a high volume sale of key levels, with a price integration with a tight range amongst geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty, the sign of potential for a breakout if the resistance to $ 2,510 was cleared.
- Gold: The gold hovered near $ 3,366 on Thursday, slightly changed as geopolitical tensions offset pressure from the fed’s Hawkish bearing, while Platinum retreated after hitting close to 10-year height; US markets have remained closed for Juneteenth.
- NIKKEI 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened the 0.24% higher Friday as Asia-Pacific markets mostly increased in advance of China’s Prime Loan Prime Rate and in the midst of Israeli-Iran’s ongoing tension.
