Price of Bitcoin All-Time Highs Historically Linked to US Dollar Index Declines-Analyst
Bitcoin has been struggling to trade above $ 90,000 since falling below $ 95,000 on Feb. (BTC) The volatility was realized, reaching the highest level from Q3 2024, according to glassnode.
Btc annualized realized volatility. Source: Glassnode
While the market is paying for additional price swings leading the first-ever US crypto summit to the White House, the analysts are also focusing on the current stab of the US dollar and its potential effect on Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin, US Dollar Index Correlation Hints in New Highs
James Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst in Real Vision, provided A detailed review that evaluates the historical relationship of the US dollar index (DXY) and Bitcoin decline. With DXY showing the fourth largest 3 -day decline in history, which exceeds -2% to -2.5%, coutts say it can cope with new high bitcoins.
Bitcoin and DXY percentage change. Source: x
Responding to historical data since 2013, coutts have been backtests in the relationship between DXY dips and Bitcoin’s trends and reviewed DXY decline data to 2% and 2.5% range.
When DXY value drops 2.5% or more:
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Bitcoin rose 100% of the time.
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The best case can make a +1 standard deviation transfer of 65% or a $ 143,000 bitcoin price
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The base case predicts an average return of 37% or $ 123,000 price of bitcoin
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The worst case outcome requires a 14% gain or a $ 102,000 bitcoin price
In case of a drop of DXY 2% or more:
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Bitcoin rose 17 to 18 times, with a 94% win rate in 90 days
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Best case, a +1 standard deviation transfer of 57.8% or $ 141,000
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Base-case, an average return of 31.6% or $ 118,000
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Worst case, a 14.6% decline or $ 76,500
With the DXY collapse of 3% between March 3 and March 6, the coutts made a “bold call” and predicted new all-time highs (ATH) in May 2025.
DXY 1-week % change. Source: x
Similarly, Julien Bittel, head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, Echoed The possibility of a racing for bitcoin based on the current DXY decline. Said the analyst,
“1) Financial conditions have led to the risks of a few months. 2) So far, financial conditions are erasing -and fast …”
Related: Bitcoin forgot the strategic reserve to ‘sell the news event’ with a 4% bounce
The eyes of Bitcoin $ 140k after “Power of 3” Breakout
Santiment, a data analytics platform, has highlights more than 50,000 wallets added to the network last month. The data suggested The 37,390 new wallets held less than 0.1 BTC, 12,754 dompets held between 0.1-100 BTC, and six whale wallets held at least 100 BTC each.
The Bitcoin network growth chart by Santiment. Source: x
This type of activity suggests that investors will remain optimistic about long -term prospects despite the price declining last month.
From a technical point of view, Jelle, a crypto investor, believed Bitcoin’s “Power of Three” setup has remained active today. Said the analyst,
“Bitcoin looks eager to recover $ 91,200. When it does – the power of three settings plays; with a target of $ 140,000.”
Bitcoin power of 3 setups. Source: x
Related: Bitcoin has ‘more than 50% chance’ of the new high in June: Cory Klippsten
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
