Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top stories in the US hour and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see The Americans.
QCP Capital The market said it has moved beyond simple rate watching and into a full liquidity regime, where central-bank and cross-border balance sheets flow at risk of more than the Fed’s next 25 basis points.
“Central bank buying, de-dollarization flows, and institutional portfolio hedging have been the dominant forces driving gold higher, expanding its correlation beyond the traditional inflation-hedge framework,” QCP Capital wrote, noting that during the latter part of the weekend’s volatility, the bitcoin-gold correlation climbed above 0.85, which highlighted synchronized flows between the two asset classes.
Markets predict coalescing around a steady but shallow fed easing cycle that favors gold and high-risk digital assets.
In Kalshitraders now assign a 76% chance of exactly three rate cuts in 2025, with a total avoidance of 75 bps, corresponding to JP Morgan’s baseline for a “mid-cycle, non-recession” path. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s Reminders this weekwhich calls for two more cuts by the end of the year, cemented that trajectory.
Bitcoin trades within the same liquidity framework.
Kalshi Traders See a 51% chance of breaking $130,000 this year, which would mark a new all-time high, 33% for $140,000, and just 21% for $150,000, with even odds of Hitting $150,000 by mid-2026.
The market is positioning for a slow-burn rally, not a speculative climb, as avoidance expectations filter gradually into real yield and dollar liquidity. Glassnode data shows a dense cluster of call positions at the $130,000 strike, indicating that options flows may reinforce short-term moves but also anchor resistance near that level.
Macro and on-chain signals point in the same direction: this is not an adrenaline-driven bull market, but a slow, advance-fed advance that can keep assets higher even without an aggressive pivot being fed.
That is, if the market is up to it Survive another social reality.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $110,500, down 2%, pressured by renewed US-China trade tensions and concerns about global risk, while analysts caution that a breach of $110,000 support could open the door to a fall towards $96,500-$100,000
Eth: Ethereum is changing hands around $3,900, down about 4%, as investors scale back exposure amid macro uncertainty and crypto concerns, while some remain optimistic that ETH could “catch up” with gold over time.
Gold: Gold is trading near $4,141.81/oz as safe-haven demand rises amid the US-China flare-up and mounting expectations for US rate cuts.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.95%, following gains on Wall Street driven by strong bank earnings.
