Bitcoin’s The short-term outlook may appear bleak with the price hovering around $105,000, but the US fiscal picture looks brighter.
According to CNBCThe US Treasury recorded a $198 billion surplus in September 2025, the largest for the month on record. This strong finish contributed to the reduction of the 2025 fiscal deficit to $ 1.78 trillion, about $ 41 billion (2.2%) less than in 2024.
While September usually records a fiscal surplus due to tax payments, this time an additional factor contributed – import duties (tariffs), introduced by President Donald Trump in April. Tariffs brought in $30 billion in revenue in September, about half of what was forecast for the full fiscal year.
These revenues have helped offset record-high interest payments on the $38 trillion national debt, which has reached more than $1.2 trillion annually. In September, net interest payments totaled $37 billion, making it the fourth largest federal outlay for the month. It rides on the back of Social Security ($133 billion), health spending ($94 billion), and national defense ($76 billion).
Stronger-than-expected earnings from Trump’s tariffs suggest he is likely to remain committed to his trade war strategy despite potential market volatility. This could prompt investors to move away from risk assets and seek safety in alternatives such as bonds and gold, mirroring the market reaction seen in the April “tariff tantrum”.
While the potential escalation of trade tensions could add to inflation, the Federal Reserve expects any price increase to be temporary and will likely continue to lower interest rates, currently at 4.00% to 4.25%.
According to CME Fed watch toolThe market is pricing in 50bps worth of rate cuts for 2025, taking the benchmark rate to 3.50 to 3.75%. It remains to be seen whether the upcoming easing provides relief to risk properties.
