The United States had a 40% chance of a backdrop in 2025 amid potential for a protected trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to the market analyst and bureau founder Nic Puckrin.
In an interview with cointelegraph, the analyst said that while a recession could not occur, a contraction and current macroeconomic uncertainty would create an environment where risk-on assets such as cryptocurrencies suffer. Puckrin said:
“Trump and his counselors said they didn’t completely remove the backwards, which means this is possible, but now, I’m not going to say it may be, but the odds are going up a lot.”
Analyst added that US president Donald Trump is not active attempt to eengineer a retreatBut that the things the Trump administration does, including cutting federal jobs and spending to balance the budget can lead to retreats as an impact.
Macroeconomic uncertainty is the leading cause of recent denial of the US dollar index (DXY), while investors change capital to better opportunities in European capital markets and seek escape from economic uncertainty that is currently robbing US markets, Puclygraph said to the cointelegraph.
DXY, which tracks the strength of the US dollar, took a nosedive in March 2025. Source: Tradingview
Related: Timeline: How Trump’s tariffs dragged Bitcoin below $ 80k
Fear of the trade war drags the price of bitcoin
President Trump Tariffs on US trading partners Sent a shockwave through crypto markets, leading to a steep drop in Altcoin prices and a 24% correction at Bitcoin’s (Btc) Price from January 20 high over $ 109,000.
The tariffs and fears of a long -term trade war Reoriented market sentiment toward extreme fear – a sharp contrast from the euphoric highs felt after the Donald Trump’s re -election In the United States in November 2025 and the January 20 inauguration.
The price of bitcoin is struggling amidst the titles of the trade war and is currently trading below the 200-day exponential transfer of average (EMA). Source: Tradingview
According to Nansen Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, Will Will Will Will Feel the pressure of the tariffs Until April 2025.
If countries can successfully adjust to an end to tariffs or the Trump administration softens its bearing then the markets can recover, the analyst added.
10x founder research Markus Thielen recently Says That is BTC develops a bottom of the price In March 2025, as US President Donald Trump softened the rhetoric around trade tariffs – signed a potential price return.
Magazine: Bitcoiners have been ‘all in’ in Trump since bitcoin ’24, but it’s dangerous
