Inflation lifted a little further in April with the year-year-old headline price index price index falling to its slowest speed for more than four years.
The April CPI rose 0.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was less than economist forecasts for 0.3%, even from -0.1% in March. On a year-on-year basis, the CPI was 2.3%higher, the slowest value since February 2021. The forecasts were for 2.4%and the speed of March was 2.4%.
The main CPIs, which wash food and energy costs, rose 0.2% in April, from 0.1% in March, but less than 0.3% expected. The CPI CPI year-on-year rose 2.8%, flat from March and consistent with forecasts for 2.8%.
Bitcoin (BTC) is added moderately to some overnight acquisitions, trading at $ 103,800 in minutes following fresh data.
US stock futures from small losses to small gains after print and the 10-year yield of wealthy arrival sinks at a base point at 4.44%.
Fed is likely to hold
While CPI numbers offer a little welcome evidence to slower inflation, they are not likely to change the calculus with respect to federal rates.
With the Tariff Panic that gets further and more in the rearview mirror, market participants quickly take bets on Fed easing action. According to the CME Fedwatch, there is currently a 11% chance of a June rate, down from 80% a month ago.
Even July doesn’t seem to be likely. There is currently a 62% chance that the Fed remains that month compared to just a 7% chance a month ago.
Throughout the spring and at his post-meeting press conference last week, Fed chair Jay Powell indicated that the central bank had no rush to take any action at rates. In dealing with China’s tariff over the weekend and the fresh news of this inflation, this policy stance is looking for more and more refined.
