Blog

Bitcoin rally at $ 120k possible after bear positions to relax


Key Takeaways:

  • Bitcoin derivatives show reduced demand for downside protection, which suggests revised investor confidence.

  • Importing US tariffs in Japan and South Korea has intensified the fears of retreating, strengthening Bitcoin’s appeal as a fence.

Bitcoin (Btc) has been trading within a tight $ 107,300 to $ 110,600 range since Wednesday, which has fuel the speculation in potential for a sudden price rally. Participants in the market are increasingly confident that the freshness of liquidity injections of major central banks can serve as a catalyst for a Bitcoin Bull run.

Source: x/Tedpillows

Market analyst Tedpillows pointed out that Bitcoin was left behind the global financial supply chart. If the historical relationship between the two remains intact, Bitcoin may be positioned for gains. In addition, X user Tedpillows argued that delays in US import deadlines “mean a green signal” to reach $ 120,000.

US Secretary of Treasury said Scott Bessent to import Tariffs will increase on August 11 for countries that have not yet reached an agreement with President Donald Trump’s administration. Initially, the administration set July 9 as a deadline for negotiations, so investors accepted the expansion as a sign of developing a trade war.

BTC Put-to-Call Volume (contracts) derival options. Source: Laevitas.CH

On Saturday, demanded for Place (sell) the options In the derivit climbs, the put-to-call ratio is pushed to its highest level for a year. While this unusual activity may reflect increased demand for downside protection, the effect appears to be fading. By Monday, the indicator returned to 0.8, favoring call options (buy).

If merchants significantly increase their leveraged bearish bets on Bitcoin, the BTC Futures Premium is likely to be affected. In neutral conditions, monthly contracts usually trade in a 5% to 10% premium to see prices, which will pay for longer periods of negotiation. A short (sell) demand spike tend to drive a premium below 5%.

Bitcoin 1-month annual premium futures. Source: Laevitas.CH

Futures data supports the notion of the bearish sentiment over the weekend, as the BTC futures premium sank 3.5% on Saturday, down 4.5% on Friday. However, on Monday, the premium rose above the 5% neutral mark, though the BTC was exchanged below $ 108,000.

Bitcoin derivatives show emotional improvement despite the wider fear of retreating

Bitcoin Derivatives of Derivatives It may not have been a bullish momentum, but the sharp spikes demanded for downside protection seems to have passed. This shift suggests that the investor’s updated confidence, especially the noteworthy given by the S&P 500 index which dropped 0.9% on Monday.

Related: Bitcoin’s price fell to $ 107K despite the $ 1b spot BTC ETF inflow – what’s behind the move?

Economic recoil concerns have deepened after US President Trump announced a 25% tariff increase in imports from Japan and South Korea. In response, the US 10-year-old Treasury harvests have risen to the highest level in two weeks, as investors demand a greater return for handling the government’s debt.

The US 10-year yield of Treasury (left) compared to BTC/USD (right). Source: Tradingview

Trade-related tensions pushed a greater move toward risk prevention. However, Bitcoin’s ability to remain above $ 107,000, in conjunction with improved derivatives indicators, strengthened the case for a rally at $ 120,000.

Ultimately, if that prophecy is fulfilled depends on a broader change in the investor’s perception, from viewing Bitcoin as a risk-on asset to Embrace it as a fence and an alternative financial system.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be done as legal or investment advice. The views, attitudes, and opinions expressed here are unique and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of the cointelegraph.