Blog

Set the BTC price for the worst Q1 since 2020 as Trump approaches 100 days

cryptobizinvest.com March 21, 2025

0 0 6 minutes read

By James Van Straten (all the time and unless otherwise indicated)

In just a week to go until the end of March, the first quarter failed, especially in terms of price action rather than a narrative for the crypto industry.

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 10%, the worst first-quarter performance since 2020, and ETH (ETH) has posted its weakest quarter since the beginning. So far, Bitcoin is relatively stable in March.

The markets remain in the later stages of President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in the office, a period of history marked by uncertainty and volatility. It is expected to continue somehow at the end of April.

As the quarter-end approaches, negative liquidity and position management may lead to increased volatility and whips-price action, according to London Crypto Clubfounders of a trade newsletter.

Despite the short -term weakness, the pair maintains a bullish outlook on the second quarter. A slightly more slippery tone from Federal Reserve At its March meeting – although there was no actual reduction in the rate – accompanied by a weak US dollar, increased fiscal expenditure in the European Union and a US economy that slowed down but did not collapse, all the factors they say would be supported by a strong three months.

Bitcoin began selling on Thursday following Trump Lack of a concrete update in a bitcoin strategic reserve or a tax -income income policy.

“Participants in the market are hoping for a tax -free income framework or a Bitcoin National Reserve accumulation plan,” said Blockhead Research Network (BRN). “Instead, Trump reiterated his overall support for the crypto industry, featuring the role of Stablecoins in maintaining the dominance of the US dollar in the global trade. While supporting the long -term period, the lack of immediate policy promises was a short -term bearish signal.”

The BRN sees digital assets that struggle to maintain breakouts, with accumulation that continues to lower levels, especially for altcoins.

“Despite the nearby weakness, we recommend that we remain heavy invested, as the market may react quickly to the next positive development. Support levels are not far from current prices,” Brn told CoinDesk in an email. Stay alert!

What to watch

Crypto:
Macro
- March 23, 8:30 pm: S&P Global Releases (Flash) Japan March Producer Price Index (PPI) Data.
  - Composite PPI Prev. 52
  - Making PPI prev. 49
  - Services PPI Prev. 53.7
- March 24, 9:45 am: S&P Global Releases (Flash) US March Producer Price Index (PPI) Data.
  - Composite PPI Prev. 51.6
  - Making PPI prev. 52.7
  - Services PPI Prev. 51
We are (Estimates based on factset data)
- March 27: Kulr Technology Group (Gold), post -market, $ -0.02
- March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (Glxy), pre-market, C $ 0.38

Events with the token

Votes and Management Calls
- Aave Dao discusses the Activating an umbrella, A system intended to replace a safety module of a. It will enable users to promote their Aave Atokens to cover potential bad debts and earn rewards for it.
- Sky Dao voted on a The executive proposal to include a number of major initiatives.
- Compound Dao is discussing the Implementation of Comp StakerA staking mechanism aimed at enhancing management and participation from Comp holders. This will allow the token holders to stake and deploy their votes to earn a portion of the protocol income.
- March 21, 11:30 AM: Flare to pose X spaces session In Flare 2.0.
- March 25, 1 AM: Crypto.com to Hold me a Session of Ask me (Father) with co-founder and CEO Kris Marszalek.
Unlocks
- March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of his circulating -shifting supply worth $ 307.8 million.
- March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating -transfer supply worth $ 26.81 million.
- April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating -shifted supply worth $ 147.01 million.
- April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of the shifting -shifting supply worth $ 114.79 million.
- April 7: KASPA (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of his circulating -shifted supply worth $ 11.81 million.
Token lists
- March 21: Pancakeswap (Cake) listed in Hashkey.
- March 21: Orca (ORCA) listed in Upbit.
- March 31: Binance to Delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, Dai, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conference

Token talk

By Shaurya Malwa

The platform pump.fun introduced the pumpswap service this Thursday, which allowed tokens made to the platform to exchange with new service instead of decentralized exchange (Dex) Raydium, where they were previously listed.
The pump introduced a new fee structure, replacing 6 SOL transfer fees with a 0.25% trading fee.
It also has plans for a revenue sharing model that motivates creators to focus on long-term growth of the token by achieving income in each trade, passing from previous dump-on-buyers dynamic.
Pump.fun metrics show a collapse in the launch and end of the token, with 29,000 coins launched on March 8 but only 264 graduates and success rates – or the tokens listed in a Dex – sinking below 1%.

Derivatives positioning

The Bitcoin Futures Open Interest has refused 628,000 BTC from the weekly high of nearly 650,000 BTC in conjunction with marginally positive funding rates. The combination indicates that the 24-hour BTC price collapse is mainly characterized by avoiding longs than new shorts.
Meanwhile, the open interest in ETH futures, meanwhile, remains elevated to highs of over 10 million ETHs in a signal merchant continues to brief a falling market.
XRM, BNB, TRX are standouts in the Altcoin market, boasting a positive combined -with Delta indicator volume over the past 24 hours. This is a sign of net purchase in these markets.
The short and closely dated BTC options flip a bearish, indicating the updated demand for release in May after expiry. Ether puts more pricier than BTC.

Market Movements:

BTC dropped 0.73% from 4 pm et Thursday to $ 83,935.26 (24hrs: -1.43%)
ETH dropped 1.19% to $ 1,960.00 (24hrs: -1.18%)
CoinDesk 20 dropped 1.29% to 2,648.64 (24hrs: -2.08%)
The ether CESR composite staking rate is up to 5 bps at 3.06%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0108% (3.95% annual) in Binance

DXY is up to 0.16% to 104.02
Gold drops 0.12% to $ 3,033.22/oz
Silver dropped 1.08% to $ 33.11/oz
Nikkei 225 closed on Thursday -0.25% to 37,677.06
Hang Seng closed on Thursday -2.19% of 23,689.72
FTSE drops 0.49% to 8,659.67
Euro Stoxx 50 drops 0.76% to 5,410.04
Djia closed on Thursday unchanged at 41,953.32
S&P 500 closed -0.22% to 5,662.89
NASDAQ closed -0.33% to 17,691.63
The S&P/TSX Composite index is closed unchanged at 25,060.24
S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.96% to 2,471.90
US 10-year Treasury Rate dropped 2 bps to 4.23%
E-Mini S&P 500 futures dropped 0.21% to 5,700.50
E-Mini Nasdaq-100 Futures dropped 0.25% to 19,828.75
E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Futures dropped 0.19 out of 42,204.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 61.52 (0.16%)
Ethereum in Bitcoin Ratio: 0.02348 (-0.38%)
Hashrate (seven-day average move): 808 eh/s
HASHPRICE (spot): $ 48.01
Total Fees: 5.47 BTC / $ 465,938
CME Futures Open Interest: 150,645 BTC
Btc that is priced at gold: 27.4 oz
BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 7.79%

Technical analysis

XRP/ETH -day -to -day chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

The XRP/Eth Daily Chart shows the MACD histogram, a momentum indicator, recently produced a lower high, varying from the ever -increasing ratio.
The difference -Irn suggests that XRP may be underperform ether in the coming days.

Crypto equities

Strategy (MSTR): Closed on Thursday at $ 302.07 (-0.71%), down 0.83% to $ 299.55 to pre-market
Coinbase Global (coin): closed to $ 190.38 (+0.33%), down 0.76% to $ 188.93
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Closed to C $ 18.15 (+2.54%)
Mara Holdings (Mara): closed at $ 12.50 (-0.24%), down 0.56% to $ 12.43
Riot Platform (Riot): closed to $ 7.76 (-0.26%), down 0.13% to $ 7.75
Core Scientific (Corz): closed to $ 8.59 (-1.04%), down 0.93% to $ 8.51
CleansPark (CLSK): closed to $ 7.75 (-3.25%), down 0.77% to $ 7.69
COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): Closed to $ 14.98 (-1.45%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed to $ 38.82 (-3.05%)
Exodo Movement (Exod): closed to $ 48.51 (+19.04%), down 0.74% to $ 48.15

ETF is flowing

Spot btc etfs:

Net -Sun -Sales Flow: $ 165.7 Million
Cumulative Net Flow: $ 36.05 Billion
Total BTC handling ~ 1,120 million.

Spot etfs

Net -Net Flow Net Flow: -$ 12.5 million
Cumulative Net Flow: $ 2.45 billion
Total Eth Holdings ~ 3.452 million.

Source: Farside Investor

Overnight flowing

Top 20 prices and quantities of digital assets

Chart of the day

BTC options: 24 hours change in open interest. (AMBERDATA/DERIBIT)

The number of active or open positions in the $ 100,000 strike of strike was reduced while open interest in lower strike calls between $ 85,000 and $ 90,000 increased in conjunction with updated interest in protections that were placed at lower levels.
The data shows a careful sentiment in the market.