Key Takeaways:
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Solana fell to $ 192 on Thursday, eliminating its entire rally at $ 253 under a week.
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An ETF decision area on October 10 could unlock the deeper institutional flow.
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RSI’s setup of Sol indicates a potential short-term bottom despite the broader altcoin correction.
Solana (Sol) slipped below the $ 200 mark on Thursday, eliminating the recent rally at an eight -month -old $ 253. The 19% sinking that opened a week was irritating the market momentum and raised questions about close strength.
However, a floating catalyst can change the narrative. Grayscale’s spot Sol Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) faced the first approval deadline on October 10, a decision that could determine whether institutional flow of the institution began to support SOL in a way similar to BTC and ETH last year.
While the Rex Osprey Staking Sol ETF, which was launched in July, offered exposure to the area, its structure was less significant than a pure product area. A Grayscale spot ETF will allow for more direct institutional participation, which potentially unlock deeper liquidity and wider adoption.
That decision was the first of a series of decisions. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to review five other applications, with a final deadline on October 16, 2025, along with proposals from Bitwise, 21shares, Vaneck, Grayscale, and Canary. Along with, the lineup emphasizes the institutional interest of bringing Sol to major investment vehicles.
Supporters argue that timing can be pivotal. Asset managers in Capital Panther It was recently called Sol “Next to the line for its institutional moment,” citing under-allocation related to BTC and ETH. While institutions hold around 16% of bitcoin and 7% of the ether, less than 1% of the SOL supply is institutional owned. Pantera Capital suggested that an ETF area could accelerate adoption, especially as companies such as Stripe and Paypal expanded their marriage with Solana.
However, not all indicators point to an upcoming breakout. The Polymarket platform platform platform currently assigns only a 41% SOL possibility that reaches a new all-time high in 2025. Indicating preservation even though ETF speculation intensifies.
Related: Australian Fitness Firm Tank 21% in Solana Treasury Gamble
Price indicator with 80% hit rate signal solu
Sol’s price action has shown amazing -a wonderful volatility over the past three weeks. The token rally at $ 253 from $ 200 in just 12 days, but a quick-looking highlighted weakening of short-term momentum, with sellers reclaiming the land faster than the consumers established it.
However, in higher timeframes, the wider trend remains constructive. The Sol continues to form a pattern of higher and higher lows, maintaining the sun -sun -sun bullish structure. The current correction presents within the first major demand zone or order block between $ 200 and $ 185, which is also overlay in the 0.50-0.618 Fibonacci Retracement Band, a region often watched for technical bounces. Holding this zone will strengthen the uprising and potentially reset the momentum.
Losing a $ 185 level will change attention to the next block block between $ 170 and $ 156. While such a move does not instantly reflect the day -to -day chart, it will significantly weaken the speed of the trend and likely to invite the deeper sale pressure.
On the intraday side, the four -hour chart shows signs of seller fatigue. Kamag -child Index Index (RSI) re -sinks below 30, a level history that has been signed below or higher lows for Sol.
Since April 2025, this setup has occurred five times, and on four of those occasions, Sol posted Swift Recoveries. If the pattern is repeated, short -term relief can be followed, as the increased timeframe correction performs.
Related: Solana Open Interest Hits Record 72M Sol, but why is the price falling?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
