Key Takeaways:
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ETH ETFs have opened access, but the flows remain a cycle.
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Sol’s plumbing is set: CME futures are live, with options completed for October 13 (pending approved).
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Normal SEC standards now allow faster ETP lists beyond BTC and ETH.
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For SOL in the outperform ETH, it will need long -term creations, tight -fitting, true use of onchain and ongoing developer momentum.
True ether (Eth) Already have a head start to the breed that has been exchanged by fund (ETF): Spot ether etf began to trade on July 23, 2024, attracting approximately $ 107 million In the early days of net flow and opening a major path for investors through brokers and retirement accounts.
However, Solana (Sol) Market infrastructure is getting. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched Solana Futures on March 17, 2025, along with Options set for October 13.
In September 2025, the US Securities and Exchange Commission adopted “GENERIC GOVERNMENT GUIDELINES“That’s the streamline of how the exchanges list products exchanged by the commodity exchange (ETP), which potentially expand the gate beyond Bitcoin (Btc) and Ether.
Also, out of the US, Sol is already trading with regulated investment wrappers by 21shares of Europe and Canada’s 3IQ.
With accessing in this area, the question is whether a US Sol ETF can fuel long -term demand that allows Solana to miss the ether at both prices and foundations.
Before tackling that, let’s set the context.
What did ETFs change, and what they didn’t do
ETF ETF spots began to trade in the US on July 23, 2024. On the first day, they recorded Approximately $ 1 billion in trading volume and about $ 107 million in net inflows, opening a major channel for investors such as registered investment investment (RIA) and institutions. However, it still rode the Bitcoin’s ETF debut size in January.
Flows since then have been spinning. By mid-2025, the ETH experienced the nets created by punctuation punctuation. In late August and mid-September 2025, reports showed a modified strength, with multi-week flows in ether products that increased the total crypto assets under management (AUM). In short, ETFs have improved accessing, but they have not removed the market cycles.
In the hours in 2025, the Ether exceeded many large crypto assets, supported by stable ETF demand and visible institutional aging and ark. This pattern suggests that while ETFs do not change basic network fundamentals, they can influence which assets are at the forefront of capital stages.
A design choice is still important: US ETFS Launched without stakinglimiting their potential income compared to handling native ETH directly. SEC is actively reviewing proposals to allow staking, but, until October 2025, have Delays decisions to many gives. If staking-even partly-it can move trade-offs between ETF handles and directly ownership.
Do you know? US exchanges have published a indicative net asset (INV) value of approximately every 15 seconds, allowing entrepreneurs to see where an ETF should be intraday’s price.
Solana today: use, growth and risk
In Q2 2025, Solana formed more than $ 271 million in network revenue, marked a third consecutive quarter leading all the Layer-1 (L1) and Layer-2 (L2) chains. In June, the data showed Solana to match the combined monthly active address of all other major L1 and L2S – strong indicators of use intensity.
In January 2025, Solana processed $ 59.2 billion in the transfer of peer-to-peer (P2P) shifts of Stablecoin, a sharp rebound from the lows of late 2024. The USDC supply in Solana stands for about $ 9.35 billion, while the total stablecoin of the network is more than double in the first 2025 $ 5.2 billion in January to $ 11.7 billion in Febrante.
Even so, Ethereum still brought most of the amount transferred by Stablecoins year-to-date-approximately 60% to mid-2025-showing Solana’s acquisitions were significant but not dominant.
Cost and speed remain key draws: sub-cental fees, 400-millisecond block times and high throughput make Solana a hub for decentralized exchange (DEX) and endless activity Futures-and a focal point 2025’s Memecoin Boom. That volume supports liquidity but also concentrates the flow in the conceptual segments.
Two structural risks are worth watching.
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Reliability: A five-hour flow in Feb. 6, 2024, requires a coordinated restart and client patch (v1.17.20).
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Regulation: US SEC complaints have passed referred to Solana as an unregistered security – a recognition of the misunderstandings of the Solana Foundation. The outcomes in this area remain highly dependent on the policy.
Do you know? CME Plans day -day, monthly and quarterly expires for solubles in solExpanding hedging menus for ETF market makers.
What is likely to change a sol etf
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Accessing and flowing: Approval will open the Sol to the mainstream brokerage and retirement channels used by Registered Investment Investment (RIA). That reduces the friction operation for allocators and expands the buyer’s base beyond crypto-native areas.
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Making a market and hedging: Listed derivatives provide authorized participants (AP) and market makers tools to create creations and redemption, as well as to run grounds or relative values. These mechanicals help maintain ETF prices close to their NAV and support the day-to-day liquidity.
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Regulatory Runway: SEC’s “generic listing standards” have expanded the path beyond BTC and ETH if sponsors are satisfied with the rules.
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Ex-US demand signals: Already, Canada’s 3IQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: Solq) and 21shares Solana Staking ETP (six: Asol) show that regulated investment wrappers for Solana can attract investor interests.
Do you know? In Europe, cryptocurrencies may not be combined with activities for collective investment in transferable security (UCIT) ETFs, so those who give are using ETPs instead. That’s why “ETP” appears in six and London Stock Exchange (LSE).
Can you really outperform ETH?
The Bull Case (Six to 12 Month Post-Approves)
A timely area of US Sol ETF with strong net creations may exceed ether in total return.
Two Key Levers:
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More extensive access to: RIAs and brokers get exposure under new standards on the common list.
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Improved market mechanics: The lighter is spreading and larger capacity as the APS hedge by CME Solana futures and listed options.
The base case
Although a Sol ETF is launching strong, the flows can return to monitoring the overall appetite. Ether maintains a structural institutional edge – thanks to its longer history, deeper familiar with the allocator and established ecosystem. Weekly Break -change of Crypto Flow Flow reflects how KaMag -Baby Performance can be choppy rather than Sol’s definitely tilted.
The bear case
Timelines that slide or skiming questions should be under the US SEC framework can reinstate expectations. Alternatively, liquidity can be weakened, and APs can run smaller books despite the presence of derivatives, limiting the creations. In that situation, Solana was an underperform ether, which had benefited from a more mature distribution.
It is also noteworthy that some regulators have expressed concerns about reduced case investigations under the standard list standard, increasing uncertainty for property beyond bitcoin and ether.
What to keep an eye on
If an area of the US Sol ETF has been approved, the true story may happen next.
The main signals to watch are straightforward. Creation and redemption show ongoing demand? Does CME open interest activity and options deepen liquidity? Do Onchain metrics such as active users, pay revenue, stablecoin and developer growth are more than just speculation? If those needles come together, the odds of soling ETH are rising strongly.
A Solana etf is Remove a basic accessing bottleneck and came with a stronger market infrastructure than the previous cycles. But Ether has already proven that it can attract billions -billion through ETFs while anchored in institutional communication.
The ETH remains a benchmark, and its flows – even cycles – shows its staying power. If Solana really outperforms depends less on the hype and more if the ETF flows are translated to the long adoption of the onchain.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
