Key Takeaways:
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Stress in the bond market has historically aligned with the bottom of the Bitcoin cycle and may signal new purchase opportunities.
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The US debt of over $ 37 trillion and raised 10-year yield points to macroeconomic pressure that may favor Bitcoin in Q4.
A Purchase Opportunity to Bitcoin (Btc) may appear before a strong Q4 rally, and bond markets can play a key role.
According to the founder of Alphractal . It measures the extra yield of investors demanding to handle dangerous corporate bonds in the US safe treasurys. When OAS spikes, it indicates fear in credit markets. Historically, stress points often marked local bottom for Bitcoin.
Currently, OAS remains relatively calm, suggesting markets are not fully priced at the next stress wave. But if credit spreads to expand in the upcoming quarter, a common outcome when liquidity is tight, it can set the stage for another stage of bitcoin accumulation.
The wider macro backdrop strengthens this perspective. The US national debt previous $ 37 trillion, which requires more than $ 2.6 billion to the sun -day -to -day payment of interest. A recent collapse of US credit reflects the remembrance of this fiscal path. Meanwhile, Treasury’s 10-year harvest is 4.3%, from 3.9% a year ago, raising costs of borrowing throughout the economy.
Wedson believes that the combination of fiscal stress and increased yields can be tilted to traditional markets, with Bitcoin benefiting as an alternative owner. “An aggressive bear market will take place earlier,” Wedson said. “But before that happens, Euphoria is the most likely scenario. I believe that many of the 2026 and forwards will be very bad for the US economy.”
Related: The Bitcoin Price Rising Wedge Breakdown: How low is BTC Go?
Buy the approach of $ 54 million in Bitcoin, but whales indicate deeper dips
Institution’s demand for Bitcoin remains stable, which is the latest of the latest approach purchase on August 17. The firm obtained 430 BTC for about $ 51.4 million at an average price of $ 119,666 per coin. It brings its total handling to 629,376 BTC.
However, onchain data data on the growing pressure sale among the largest Bitcoin holders. Cointelegraph reported That the number of mega whale addresses holding more than 10,000 BTCs dropped to its lowest level in 2025, with a constant negative 30-day trend since mid-July. Similarly, whale wallets in 1,000-10,000 range BTC have refused, suggesting earning income after recent highs.
Adding to the market volatility, nearly 32,000 BTC dormant (3-5 years), worth about $ 3.78 billion, has been moved to a single move, the largest move from this age over a year.
📊market update: nearly 32k dormant BTC (3-5y old) worth ~ $ 3.78B has been moved, the largest move from this age band for a year. 👀
(H/T: ) pic.twitter.com/dfqlabfrkr
– Cointelegraph Markets & Research (@cointelegraphmt) August 17, 2025
Together, these signals suggest that while institutional consumers continue to accumulate, wider whale activity and resurrected supply can phase short-term corrections, maintaining an increase in volatility.
Related: Dip consumers stopped on the train, ‘5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
