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StableCoin Flows Ahead of Fed Rate Decision: Crypto Daybook Americas

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By francisco rodrigues (all times and unless otherwise indicated)

Bitcoin BTC$113,169.82 is hovering around $113,000 after falling 1.4% in 24 hours, while the broader crypto market, as measured by Coindesk 20 (CD20) index, fell 2%.

The declines come amid a rally in StableCoins ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later today. A 25 basis point interest-rate cut is a near certainty. The CME Fedwatch The tool shows a 99.9% chance that this happens, while traders Polymarket Put the odds at 98.1%.

Traders are also watching for signs that the Fed is set to slow down its balance sheet, further easing financial conditions and being a potential boon for risk assets.

Trading activity is thin. Liquidity on the centralized exchange has fallen sharply, with order book depth sitting at just 40% of pre-liquid levels, According to foresight venturesas traders cycle in StableCoins.

“Traders are turning to USD stableCoins and concentrating liquidity in deep order books,” OKX Singapore CEO Gracie Lin told Coindesk. According to Wintermute, StableCoin Supply is rising again today for the first time since September, showing “macro tailwinds are starting to translate into fresh inflows.”

Similarly, Perpetual Futures funding rates are now positive for most major tokens, while open interest for BTC and ETH is “rebuilding at a measured pace.”

“While Uptober had a bit of a false start, macro tailwinds, cooling inflation, ‘stabilizing’ geopolitical tensions, and a dovish fed set the stage for a supportive rest of the year, which historically (Q4) has been the strongest for bitcoin,” write Wintermute OTC Desk Strategist Jasper de Maere.

The positioning and macro tailwinds seem to suggest a breakout is sinking, a position that various analysts appear to be taking. However, President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week could boost uncertainty. Stay Alert!

What to watch

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out Coindesk’s “Crypto has an early week“.

Crypto
- October 29: Grayscale’s Solana Trust converts to a NYSE Arca listing under the ticker GSOL.
Macros
- October 29, 9:45 AM: Bank of Canada Interest-Rate Decision. Policy interest rate (Prev. 2.5%). The press conference will begin 45 minutes later; Watch Live.
- October 29, 2 pm: Federal Reserve Interest-rate decision. Fed Fed Fund Rate Target Range EST. 3.75%-4%. The press conference will begin in 30 minutes; Watch Live.
Revenue (Estimates based on factSet data)

Token events

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out Coindesk’s “Crypto has an early week“.

Management votes and calls
- Lisk Dao votes on a proposal of 4m LSK to start a Lisk Dao FundExchanging grants for investments in leading Lisk startups. Voting ends October 29.
- ZKSYNC DAO is voting in allocating 33M ZK (~$1.65M) to the ZKSYNC Association to maintain and improve the management infrastructure through 2026. Voting ends October 29.
- Ens Dao voted to fund ENS Contract Our Season. Voting ends October 29.
Unlocks
Launching a token

Conference

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out Coindesk’s “Crypto has an early week“.

Token talk

By Oliver Knight

The Altcoin market began to show signs of strength on Wednesday, with traders circling higher-beta tokens ahead of potential policy headlines.
The Trump token, referred to by President Donald Trump in January, led the move, gaining strength as optimism grew that the US and China were closing in on a trade deal.
Aero$0.9800 Rose, too, was buoyed by robust activity across the base based on protocols. The token added 7.2% as it noted its highest level since the beginning of the month.
The market still showed a preference for bitcoin, with coinmarketcap’s “altcoin era” The indicator remains at 26/100.
Altcoin gains were confined to memecoins and defi tokens, while larger tokens traded in tight ranges.
This one$0.4662 And Hedera (HBAR) both gave back much of their gains on Wednesday, with the former down 6.9% in 24 hours while Hedera fell 4.5% despite a spot HBAR ETF going live on the NYSE on Tuesday.

Derivatives Positioning

The BTC Futures market is holding steady, with open interest (OI) at $26.8 billion.
Funding rates, however, are very different: Deribit shows an aggressive spike to 24.64% annual, which signals a strong demand for long positions, while OKX sinks to -3%, where shorts are paid.
This mix of prolonged high OI and polarized funding rates indicates elevated near-term market volatility and uncertainty, disrupting previously uniform bullish sentiment.
In the options market, Bitcoin is showing a strong advance in bullish belief. The implied volatility (IV) term structure shows a slight near-backwardation (downward slope) before normalizing to the long-term contango (upward slope).
Short-term bullish sentiment has increased significantly, with the 250-delta skew at 10% for one-week expiration, meaning traders are paying a large premium for call options. This is further evidenced by the 24-hour plan-call volume, WHIC is strongly in favor of calls (60%).
Coinglass data shows $514 million in 24-hour liquidation, with a 69-31 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($155 million), BTC ($114 million) and Sol ($57 million) are the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
The binance liquidation heatmap indicates $114,350 as a key liquidation level to monitor, in case the price rises.

Market movements

BTC is up 0.23% as of 4 PM ET Tuesday at $113,094.99 (24hrs: -1.34%)
ETH is up 0.53% at $4,003 (24hrs: -2.87%)
Coindesk 20 is up 0.72% to 3,755.92 (24hrs: -2.03%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate down 4 bps to 2.85%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0036% (3.9431% annual) on Binance

DXY was up 0.21% at 98.88
Gold futures were up 1.35% at $4,036.70
Silver futures were up 2.21% at $48.37
NIKKEI 225 closed up 2.17% at 51,307.65
Hang Seng closed up 0.33% at 26,346.14
The FTSE was up 0.47% at 9,742.64
The Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.27% at 5,719.98
The DJIA closed Tuesday up 0.34% at 47,706.37
The S&P 500 closed up 0.23% at 6,890.89
The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.80% at 23,827.49
The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.48% at 30,419.68
The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.86% at 2,979.82
US 10-Year Treasury Rate up 0.8 bps to 3.991%
E-Mini S&P 500 futures were up 0.12% at 6,934.00
e-mini Nasdaq-100 futures were up 0.26% at 26,232.75
The E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index was down 0.27% at 47,768.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 59.84% (-0.24%)
Ether-Bitcoin Ratio: 0.03537 (0.31%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,137 eh/s
HashPrice (Spot): $48.69
Total fees: 2.94 BTC / $335,834
CME Futures Open Interest: 143,590 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 26.9 oz.
BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 7.58%

Technical Analysis

The total altcoin market cap (excluding the top 10 cryptocurrencies) to Bitcoin ratio is resting on a critical, long-term weekly support.
The lack of a clear revival signal makes this a highly precarious position as a breakdown below this level would indicate significant further downside and market pain for the wider altcoin sector.
With the next resistance 36% away and the next support -27% below, the current risk/reward is unfavorable for broad altcoin exposure compared to Bitcoin.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (coin): Closed Tuesday at $355.22 (-1.72%), +0.28% at $356.20 in pre-market
Circle Internet (CRCL): Closed at $136.11 (-5.01%), unchanged in pre-market
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $37.29 (-8.04%), +0.4% at $37.44
Bullish (BLSH): closed at $54.01 (-4.08%), +0.54% at $54.30
Mara Holdings (MARA): Closed at $18.88 (-3.48%), +0.58% at $18.99
Riot Platform (Riot): Closed at $21.56 (-6.28%), +1.37% at $21.85
Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $20.09 (+1.11%), +1.54% at $20.40
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $19.15 (-5.2%), +1.51% at $19.44
Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $59.48 (-2.24%), +0.79% at $59.95
Exodus Movement (Exod): Closed at $25.01 (-3.88%)

Crypto Treasury Companies