Traditionally, government bond revenues, especially on US Treasury notes, are seen as an opposite wind for BTC and other risk assets.
However, the last continuous flexibility in the cabinet revenues indicates a different story – one led by factors that can be bullish for bitcoin, according to analysts.
The US data released on Tuesday showed that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose 0.2 % on the basis of the month for both the main and basic address in April, less than the expected 0.3 % readings. This led to an annual inflation by 2.3 %, which is the lowest level since February 2021.
However, the 10 -year treasury yield prices, which are affected by inflation, have decreased, which pushed the return up to 4.5 %, which is the highest since April 11, according to the TRADINGVIEW data source.
The alleged standard return is 30 basis points in May alone, the return for 30 years has risen to 4.94 %, and sits near the highest levels of the past 18 years.
This was the late topic: the returns are still high despite all the news about the cessation of customs tariffs, the American -Chinese commercial deal and the slowdown. (The return increases for 10 years from 3.8 % to 4.6 % at early last month, as commercial tensions of investors witnessed the sale of American assets)
The rise in the so -called risk -free fee is usually raised from the circulation of money from stocks and other most dangerous investments such as encryption and bonds.
Pride
However, the latest return from the return stems from the expectations of continuous financial expansion during the term of President Donald Trump, according to Spencer Hakamian, founder of Tolo Capital Management.
“The bonds below in the weak day of the consumer price index [of] Financial expansion like madness. ” Two judges said to x. “Everyone plays to win in the middle of the time. Debt and deficit are cursed. It’s great for Bitcoin, gold and stocks. It’s terrible for bonds.”
Al -Hakimi explained this Trump’s tax plan It will immediately add another $ 2.5 trillion to the financial deficit. In other words, the fiscal policy under Trump is likely to be exactly expansion as it was under Biden, as it acts as a rear commander of risk assets, including bitcoin.
Details of the tax reduction plan that Bloomberg reported early this week Proposal $ 4 trillion of tax cuts and about $ 1.5 trillion of spending cuts, up to $ 2.5 trillion.
Arif Hussein, head of the global fixed income and the largest investment employees in the fixed income department in T
“Financial expansion may be a supporter of growth, but most importantly, it is likely to put more pressure on the cabinet market. I am now more convinced that the US Treasury returns for 10 years to 6 % in the next 12 to 18 months,” Hussein said In a blog post.
Sovereign
Each of the permitted mixtures is the continuous high financial treasury revenue, which is an idea first Economist, Russell Nabir Two years ago and Director of Information, founder of Maelstrom and co -founder, Arthur HayesLast year, and the re -experience of American sovereign risks.
“When the bond market requires higher returns even with low inflation, it is not related to the inflation cycle, it is related to the sustainability of the issuance of US debt itself,” He said on x.
The observer explained that the highest returns create a self -enhancement cycle to increase the costs of debt service, which calls for more debt version (more supply of bonds) and even higher rates. All this ends up raising the risk of the sovereign debt crisis.
BTC, which is widely seen as Foundation’s control assets and an alternative investment car, can gain more value in this scenario.
Moreover, with the height of revenues, the federal government and the US government can implement the return curve control, or buy active bonds to achieve the return for 10 years from the height until after a certain level, to assume 5 %.
Consequently, the Federal Reserve is committed to purchasing more bonds every time the return is threatened to rise to more than 5 %, which unintentionally enhances liquidity in the financial system, and collects demand for assets such as bitcoin, gold and stocks.
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