The $ 300k bitcoin lottery is growing even bigger as BTC entrepreneurs are chasing upside down – time to retreat?
Earlier this month, CoinDesk Highlighting the rising demand for the listed $ 300,000 Bitcoin listed in the derivit
The call option, which has noticed this as one of the most popular bullish plays for all-important expiration of the June quarter.
Today, this bet has become most popular with the upcoming quarterly expiry, strengthening its appeal as an “Lottery ticket ” For entrepreneurs to expect a Bitcoin price rally of over $ 300,000 by the end of next month.
At the time of the press, the $ 300,000 call option was the most popular stakes on June 27 to expire, with a notional open interest of over $ 600 million, from $ 484 million three weeks ago, according to Data Source Deribit. The notional open interest represents the dollar value of the number of active or open contracts at a given time. In the derivit, a contract of choice represents a BTC.
“The June $ 300K BTC call options have emerged as a strike with the highest open interest (in June Expiration), reflecting the aggressive speculation of entrepreneurs who expect the continuous reversal,” the business leader of the derivit Lin Chen told CoinDesk.
“The combination of record-breaking volumes and concentrated signal options have increased market confidence-and the potential for increased volatility ahead,” Chen added.
DERIBIT’S NOTIONS Options Open interest hits a high record of $ 42.5 billion last week. Momentum is a mirror in the newly launched RFQ block (request for quote) of the platform, registering a historical record of nearly $ 1 billion in the day -to -day volume.
A call option gives the buyer correctly but not the obligation to buy the underlying possession, BTC, at a predetermined price at or before a certain date. A consumer call is explicitly bullish on the market.
The $ 300,000 call expired on June 27 represents a stake that the price of Bitcoin will increase three times from the current $ 110,000 to over $ 300,000 at the end of the first half.
The stakes sound worthless, as the first half will end for about four weeks. But that is what happened recently in the derivit, that entrepreneurs are increasingly targeting the reverse potential through short-term options.
That has been proven by frontal return, measuring demand for calls associated with short -term putting, being more pricier than those with longer maturation.
The chart by AMBERDATA shows the returns at risk is positive throughout the board, indicating a bias for bullish call options. However, short -term calls are pricer than a longer period. Usually, the opposite is the case.
The trend indicates a higher appetite for the fast -paced speed with market participants.
“The three-day Bitcoin Conference 2025 is set to start in Las Vegas today, and so people are thinking about what new bullish announcements will be released in the event,” Chen explained.
Contractor’s signal
Growing demand for short-term calls can be a contractor signal that suggests that excessive speculation is often seen near the tops of the market, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research.
Thielen said the options market flashed a warning, with a seven -day call trading in a 10% premium placed.
“The options market flashes a warning: Bitcoin’s skew, measuring the difference in the implied volatility between the puts and calls, drops to about -10%, indicating calls is pricing significantly more volatility than putting it,” Thielen said in a note to clients.
“This indicates that entrepreneurs are aggressively pursuing the upside over the downside risk. In our experience, such a severe level of skew often reflects the peak bullish sentiment, a classic contractor signal,” Thielen added.
