MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin And what was long seen as a leveraged bet on crypto, shed nearly $18 billion in market value as enthusiasm dried up and premium net asset value (MNAV) collapsed in recent months.
The stock could be poised for a rebound as a series of key catalysts could reverse the bearish trend as soon as this week, according to a fresh report Via 10x Research’s Markus Thielen, who has previously been bearish on the name.
“At today’s price, with the NAV Premium largely gone, volatility higher, and a potential catalyst in the form of strong Q3 earnings and updated speculative S&P 500 integration, we see the strategy as attractive at current levels,” Thielen wrote, noting that the stock here could offer better value than Bitcoin itself.
The stock’s fall below $280 (down another 1.8% on Wednesday) left the market cap sitting slightly above the value of bitcoin on the company’s balance sheet. That marks a sharp reversal from late 2024, when speculative premiums, Thielen said, pushed the stock beyond its fundamentals.
While the 40% decline since July left sentiment “washed out” and retail interest low, the company’s Thursday earnings report could mark a pivot, Thielen said.
He expects the firm to report approximately $3.6 billion in revenue from mark-to-market gains on BTC holdings. The gain could reset speculation for a potential S&P 500 merger decision in December – a move Thielen now assigns a 60-70% probability.
Including the stock in one of the world’s most important equity indexes could drive up to $28 billion in passive and active fund flows, setting MSTR up for a similar rally seen in Coinbase (coin) and Robinhood (Hood) following their S&P 500 mergers.
“Capitulation always felt like the end — until it quietly marked the beginning,” Thielen said.
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