Crypto traders have long referred to October as “uptober” in colloquialism that nods to the month’s tendency to deliver the biggest rally for Bitcoin. But this year’s record is shaping up to be the worst since 2015, so far.
Bitcoin is down 5% month-to-date, trading near $107,000 by late Asian time on Sunday, coinglass data shows. The historical average for October sits around 19.8%, next to November’s 42% which was the asset’s strongest month.
Macro risk is drowned periodically. The US-China tariff standoff, weak liquidity, and a string of leveraged washouts have all combined to reverse.
Bitcoin’s slide below $107,000 last week triggered another $1.2 billion in liquidity, wiping out long positions built up after September’s rebound. Ethereum, Solana, and BNB are each down 4%–7% on the week, while smaller tokens like and down more than 20%. The Coindesk 20 Index fell 8% in October.
October’s red streak is unprecedented, but it’s rare. Bitcoin has only closed the month lower twice in twelve years – 2014 and 2018, with the latter ending with a 3% decline.
However, in 2020, Bitcoin flipped from an early October loss to a 27% rally by month-end, setting next year’s record highs. In the remaining two weeks, the calendar leaves room for an upside.
“Uptober” may not be but it’s putting its name to the test this year.
