Key Takeaways:
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A unique variation has emerged as long-term bitcoin holders get the income, while the overall supply held by this cohort continues to rise.
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Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to 10 percent, its lowest range in a decade, despite trading prices close to all times.
Bitcoin (BTC) The price only walks a few percentage points below the entire time high of $ 111,800, and data from the Onchain Analytics provider Glassnode shows a “unique dynamic cycle,” as long-term holders continue to lead the distribution of wealth, even in the next stage of the tournament market. This behavior deviates strongly from previous cycles.
The data Highlights Long-term holders-BTC holders for more than 155 days-realize significant revenues, including their net realized income/loss of explosion to $ 930 million per day. Despite this, the general supply held by the LTHS is still rising. This has not yet occurred at this stage of a rally, where the LTH supply tends to decrease due to widespread income.
This dynamic suggests that while some long -term investors sell, a larger volume of coins lasts in long -term status. The report called it is a “unique dual” in the structure of the market, where the sale of pressure is largely continuous accumulation. This change in the conduct of the holders is further linked to institutional investors and us by the ETFs of Bitcoin, which favors long-term precautions.
Further evidence of the behavior of this late cycle appears in the realized income/loss ratio, currently at 9.4, indicating that most long-term coins spent are in large profits. Historically, these levels coincide with the market euphoria and often ahead of a local or cycle cycle, though they can continue in the months if demands maintain.
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Bitcoin’s volatility is tight and can dictate price detection
The current Bitcoin volatility profile presents a paradox. On the one hand, the realized supply density, which measures how the concentrated inhabitants of Bitcoin are close to the current price, has risen in recent weeks. This is a sign that many investors have purchased around $ 105,000- $ 110,000 levels. In these strictly clustered environments, minor price swings can trigger outsized emotional or trading responses, to raise the risk of sudden volatility.
On the other hand, adverse signals come from the derivatives market. And-the-pear indicated by volatility (ATM IV) —a scale of expected future price swings derived from Bitcoin options Pricing – constantly falling into all timeframes. This indicates that merchants do not have to be bracing for significant price dislocations as soon as possible.
Likewise, Data From Ecoometrics shows the weekly volatility of Bitcoin now dropped to 10 percent, less than 90% of the weeks in the last 10 years, despite setting bitcoin a new all-time high and strong rally in May. It can signal that bitcoin can enter a new regime, reflecting strong performance without wrong price swings, which is an attractive setup for institution investors dedicated to adjusted risks of risk.
By the price of BTC that frown at the top of a dense cluster of supply and institutional flow of flow, the market will appear stable, but strict wounds. If new demand outpaces earn revenue, bitcoin may explode by volatility of the ceiling. But if the cracks of emotions, the pullback may be deeper than expected.
Related: How high is the price of bitcoin?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
