Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top stories in the US hour and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see The Americans.
Bitcoin slipped into a weaker market structure as strong bid supporting prices earlier in the year gave way to reduced demand and defensive positioning.
In a recent note, Cryptoquant wrote that the cycle’s core demand wave has passed, with ETF accumulation slowing, company buying evaporating, and strategy purchases falling to their lowest levels of the year.
This does not indicate an imminent collapse, the cryptoquant argues, but it does mean that upside is increasingly limited, with rallies likely to stall below the 365-day moving average until a new wave of demand emerges.
Polymarket traders is positioning around that weakness, assigning the highest probability to a move towards 85,000 and giving almost no weight to upside scenarios.
Glassnode added Those short-term holders are realizing losses at their fastest pace since the FTX era, ETF flows remain negative, and derivatives markets have shifted into full risk mode, with options traders loading up on puts and implied volatility.
Against that backdrop, Glassnode points to active investor spending near $88,600 as the next critical market test.
A prolonged move below this level would put recently active investors in losses for the first time this cycle and signal that momentum is in control. The next support sits in the real market mean around $82,000, which Glassnode described as the point where a mild bearish phase could give way to a bear market structure similar to 2022 and 2023.
The coming weeks will show if buyers can reposition themselves or if support gives way and the fall becomes more subtle.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading around $92,000 after briefly slipping below $90,000 earlier in the week, leaving the market on edge as it searches for support.
Eth: Ether is trading around $3,038, having slipped modestly on the day as it continues to track Bitcoin’s broader defensive tone.
Gold: Gold is trading near $4,067 after touching an intraday high of $4,132, as risk aversion by the markets.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Thursday as a strong NVIDIA earnings report boosted chip stocks, lifting the Nikkei 225 by 3.7%
