Mike Rychko, a researcher at prediction market infrastructure provider Azuro, thinks prediction markets are breaking the mainstream — and the data appears to back him up.
On a Thursday x PostRychko argued that Prediction markets are entering the real world beyond crypto and that their access will likely result in their success as the first decentralized finance product (defi) to achieve mass adoption.
“Most people will never open a derivatives exchange,” Rychko wrote. “But ‘87% Chance Mamdani win’ – that’s a language that anyone speaks.”
He added that “people are lazy by design” and crave a “clean, digestible signal,” and said that prediction markets meet that demand by making complex predictions on simple data points.
“Simplicity is precisely why prediction markets will find mass adoption faster than most experiments have done.”
Earlier this month, the crypto-powered prediction market Polymarket received a $ 2 billion investment from the NYSE The parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, at a $ 9 billion valuation.
Reports in early September suggested that Polymarket was aiming for a US launch that could value the company as high as $10 billionfollowing the appointment of Son of the President of the United States in the companyBoard of Directors.
Established In 2020, Polymarket allows users to bet StableCoins on real-world events, from elections to sports results. The platform surged in popularity during the 2024 US presidential election, when activity and volume hit record highs.
Prediction markets are getting into the zeitgeist
Rychko noted that prediction markets have reached unprecedented levels of fundamental visibility in recent months. Market forecaster and polymarket competitor Kalshi’s New York City screen, which shows a live market feed focused on the city’s mayoral election, is attracting widespread attention, along with video Drawing Almost 13 million views on X alone.
Rychko described the display as “a public signal” and a “real-time reflection of collective belief.” “The same way stock tickers once defined the financial era of the 80s, prediction tickers are beginning to define the information economy of the 2020s,” he wrote.
Kalshi is a regulated prediction market platform in the US that operates under the Oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), making it the first federally regulated exchange for event contracts. The platform was recently featured in the long-running animated show South Parka staple of pop culture, with an episode dedicated to US President Donald Trump.
Related: NYSE Parent invests $2B in polymarket at $9B valuation
Prediction markets are seeing major growth
Kalshi is not a crypto-driven platform, but it joins a segment of the market that has largely lived off a crypto project.
Polymarket grew to prominence in late 2024, as its market during the United States presidential election attracting significant attention and capital. The service reached its highest number of daily active wallets at the start of 2025—more than 72,600 on January 19, dune data shows.
The highest number of transactions on the platform occurred on December 27, 2024: almost 590,000 in one day. Although the platform has not returned to those peaks, it maintains strong usage. This month, it processed more than $1 billion in trade volume, bringing the cumulative volume to more than $15.7 billion, according to Dune.
Related: Nobel Peace Prize Bets on Polymarket Under Test: Report
This trend is clearly visible when analyzing the total amount locked in Polmarket. According to DefillamaThe protocol now controls more than $ 194 million – 62% less than the almost $ 512 million reported at the height of betting on the US presidential election, but also 2,325% higher than the $ 8 million held exactly one year ago.
Rychko said this robust activity underscores the appeal of prediction markets as Defi’s most relatable product—one that blends cultural relevance with involvement in the financial world.
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