A broad calm to hold asset classes as entrepreneurs look forward to the Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for August 21-23.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) The 30-day indicated volatility, as measured by Volmex’s BVIV and Volmex Index, refused strongly in recent months, walking close to two-year lows of almost 36% last week, according to TradingView data.
Similarly, the CME Gold Volatility Index (Gvz)estimating the expected 30-day volatility of return for SPDR Gold Shares ETF (Gld)has been more than dividing over the past four months, decreasing to 15.22% – lowest levels since January.
The intert index, which monitors the 30-day indicated volatility of Treasury notes, has also refused in recent months, reaching a 3.5-year less than 76%.
Meanwhile. A similar one Vol compression is visible to Fx majors like EUR/USD.
Rates are ‘still high’
The pronounced slide to volatility throughout the major possessions arises as central banks, especially the Fed, is expected to deliver rates from the rate from restriction territory, rather than in the middle of a crisis.
“Most major economies are not easing from ultra-low or emergency levels as we saw after the financial crisis or during the covid. They cut off from territorial restrictions, the meaning rates are still sufficient to slow down, and in many cases, real rates, fit for inflation, it is still positive. How the next stage is playing, “Pseudonmous End guardian mentioned in xexplaining the bull run on all owners, including cryptocurrencies and stock markets.
According to the CME’s Fedwatch tool, the Fed is expected to cut the rates of 25 points basis in September, continuing to avoid rotation after eight months of pause. Giant banking banking JPMorgan expects The benchmark borrowing cost dropped to 3.25%-3.5%by the end of the first quarter of 2026, a decrease of 100-base-point from the current 4.25%.
Every few observers, Powell could lay the basis for fresh emergence during this Jackson hole speech.
“The path to quitting the cuts may be uneven, as we have seen in the last two years, where the markets are eager for the rates and sometimes the Fed has failed to deliver them. But we believe the direction of travel for rates is likely to remain lower,” Angelo Kourkafas, a senior global investment stratement strate at Edward Jones, said the trip to the blog Friday.
“With inflation treading water and labor-market strains becoming more pronounced, the balance of risks may soon tip towards the action.
In other words, the collapse of volatility in the classes is likely to reflect expectations for easy financial policy and economic stability.
The markets are too surprising?
However, contrarians may view this as a sign that markets are too complacent, as President Donald Trump’s trading tariffs threatened to weigh economic growth, and the latest data points in adhesive inflation.
Just look at the price levels for most owners, including BTC and gold: they are all in record highs.
Prosper Trading Academy’s Scott Bauer Argued last week During an interview with the Schwab Network whose volatility was too low following the recent economic data circulation, with greater uncertainty.
The argument for market satisfaction gets credentials when viewed against the rear of bond markets, where corporate bonds have spread to their lowest since 2007. Golding analysts in Goldman Sachs to warn clients against fun and take hedges.
“There are sufficient sources of downside risks to reveal the maintenance of some hedges in portfolios,” Strategic Goldmen written by Lotfi Karoui on a note dated on July 31, According to Bloomberg.
“Growth can surprise the downside,” dis-inflationary pressure may lose or change concerns with Fed Independence can phase a sharp sale on long-dated dungeons.
In any case, volatility is mean-reversing, which means low volatility periods usually set the stage for a return to more chaotic conditions.
