Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes agrees that the four-year crypto cycle is dead, but not for reasons most people believe.
“As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is on us, entrepreneurs want to apply the historical pattern and guess the end in this bull run,” Hayes said in a blog post on Thursday.
He added that while the four -year pattern has worked in the past, it is no longer appropriate and “will fail at this time.”
Hayes Bitcoin has argued that (Btc) Price cycles are driven by supply and amount of money, especially USD and the Chinese Yuan, rather than arbitrary four-year pattern linked to halt of eventsor as a direct result of institutional interest in crypto.
The previous cycles ended when financial conditions were tight, not due to timing, Hayes said.
The current twist is different
Hayes argues that the cycle is different for many reasons, including the US Treasury who has dragged $ 2.5 trillion from the Fed’s reverse rep More easily financial policy to grow in debt.
There are also plans to lydegulate banks to increase lending.
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In addition, the US central bank continued the rates despite inflation beyond its target. Two more rate cuts are predicted this year, with 94% odds in one October cut and 80% odds in another in December, According to In the CME futures market.
It’s all about Chinese and US money printing
Bitcoin’s first bull run in conjunction with the Federal Reserve Quantitative easing and expanding Chinese credit, which ends when both Fed and Chinese Central Bank slow down the money printing in late 2013.
The second “ICO cycle” was driven especially by the Yuan credit explosion and lowering money in 2015, not the USD. The bull market collapsed as Chinese credit growth was rotting and the dollar conditions were tight, he said.
In the third “(Covid-19) cycle,” Bitcoin advanced to USD’s liquidity while China remained in control. It ended when the Fed started tight in late 2021, Hayes explained.
China will not kill the cycle at this time
Hayes argued that China This rally will not be ruined as done in previous cycles, policy manufacturers are moving to the “end of deflection” rather than continuing to eliminate liquidity.
This change from a deflationary headwind to at least neutral, or mildly supporting financial policy, removes a major obstacle to killing the cycle, allowing US finance expansion to drive bitcoin higher without avoiding Chinese, he said.
“Listen to our finances masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly say that the money will be cheaper and more. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in the hope of the highly likely future. The king is dead, the king lives!”
Many still believe in four -year cycle
On-chain analytics firm glassnode Nakasa said In August that “from a cycle of view, the price of bitcoin price also reflects the previous patterns.”
“I think when it comes to the four-year cycle, the truth is that we are likely to continue to see some form of a cycle,” head of the Crypto Exchange Gemini’s head of APAC Region, said Ahmed, said The cointelegraph earlier this month.
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