Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin ETFs saw $839 million in outflows while gold ETFs lost $4.1 billion.
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Historical patterns suggest an 8.3% gold rebound ahead.
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BTC is holding strong above a technical support, eyeing $150,000 by the end of the year.
Gold’s Shine is quickly fading, as is its “digital” rival, Bitcoin (BTC), the recoveries lost ground.
Just a week after notching a record above $4,381, the precious metal retreated more than 10.60%, sinking to $3,915 on Thursday, the steepest seven-day drop since April.
The correction in gold coincided with a nearly 6.70% jump in the price of Bitcoin, highlighting a sharp divergence as the US and China moved closer to a trade agreement.
The shift followed Donald Trump’s remarks about an “amazing meeting” with Xi Jinping on Thursday, in which the two leaders agreed to reduce fentanyl tariffs from 20% to 10%, effective immediately.
With risk appetite improving and crypto markets heating up, could gold’s correction below $4,000 support be a sign that traders are circling back into Bitcoin months ahead?
Bitcoin ETFs attract $839 million amid gold plunge
U.S.-listed U.S.-listed ETFs absorbed $839 million in net inflows as gold hit a record high on Oct. 20, with holdings rising sequentially in the last four sessions, data from farside investors showed. out.
In contrast, gold-backed ETFs experienced a total inflow of nearly 1.064 million ounces (about $4.1 billion) since Oct. 22, according to Bloomberg data.
This included the biggest one-day withdrawal in more than six months on Monday, when investors withdrew 0.448 million ounces of gold exposure.
BTC Technical now indicates a strong floor near $101,790.
Which is aligned with the 20-week exponential moving average (20-week EMA; the green wave) and the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level. Holding above confluence support increases BTC odds hitting $150,000 by the end of the year.
JPMorgan analysts expect the BTC Price to reach $165,000 in 2025arguing that it remains undervalued relative to gold.
Gold has not yet sunk: analysts
Gold is still around 50% year-to-date, buoyed by record central-bank purchases, persistent fiscal imbalances, and the ongoing “debasement trade“Where investors are looking for protection from Government debt balloon and weakened fiat currencies.
Metal Trader David Bateman Arguments That Gold Bull Run remains intact despite the ongoing correction.
Technicals further indicate that gold remains in a bull market correction, with the metal holding firmly above the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA, represented by the red wave).
Gold has bounced off the 50-day EMA support each of the past two years, resulting in rebounds of 4-33%, as shown below.
Also, gold’s previous 10% correction over the past three decades continued to lead to sharp rebounds within days, signaling a likely short-term bottom rather than a deeper downside.
Related: Bitcoin-gold correlation rising as BTC follows gold’s path to store of value
The previous ten instances of such steep drops all produced positive two-month returns, averaging an 8.3% recovery, according to data highlighted by Sabu is changing.
Gold could revisit the $4,200-$4,250 zone by December, effectively retesting its record highs and reaffirming the metal’s broader uptrend, if the pattern holds.
The metal may still strike HSBC’s $5,000 target in 2026 as long as it holds above the red wave.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
