This is a daily analysis by Coindesk analyst and chartered market technician Omkar Godbole.
As bitcoin’s As the price wilts, bulls fuel hopes of a potential currency swing from the still-rallying gold to its digital counterpart.
These hopes may get a boost as price charts show the dollar price per ounce is now at its peak against the per ounce price of gold, according to the widely watched 14-day relative strength index (RSI).
The oscillator dropped to 22.20, dipping below February’s lows to levels last seen in November 2022.
However, an oversold RSI reading alone does not guarantee an immediate bullish pullback for BTC against gold. This condition requires confirmation from other technical indicators, such as signs of fatigue in the downtrend in price action, bullish divergences, or increased buying volume. Without these supporting signals, the oversold status can persist during strong downtrends, meaning the price can continue to fall despite low RSI levels.
As of writing, the Bitcoin-gold ratio remains in a pronounced downtrend, marked by prominent red candles that feature seller dominance amid the recently confirmed cross-the bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA).
Given this bearish technical backdrop, BTC Bulls will have to exercise patience and wait for clearer signs of a trend reversal before expecting a sustained recovery.
BTC/USD is looking south
The same can be said about the dollar-denominated price of BTC as it looks set to test the lower end of the channel expansion, currently below $100,000.
The 14-day RSI has yet to hit oversold territory, and the MACD histogram continues to print deeper bars below the sign, both of which suggest scope for continued sell-offs to continue. Further, prices seem to have found acceptance below the 200-day SMA, which could prompt selling by momentum traders.
With prices below the 200-day SMA, the focus is on the lower boundary of the expanding channel, which is currently around $99,500.
Here is the refined and developed version of your sentence:
The 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently around $101,700, remains a critical support level for Bitcoin. Throughout the bull run beginning in early 2023, this moving average has always provided a reliable foundation, helping to sustain rallies and push prices to new highs.
