As bitcoin (BTC) wobbles around the $90,000-$95,000 area, down more than 10% from its all-time high touched a little less than four weeks ago, a contrast is growing between traders — which technical analysis tools show the leading cryptocurrency could be due for another crash — and long-term investors believe the bull run is nowhere near over.
That’s according to David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, a firm that provides asset management services to funds and high-net-worth individuals in the crypto space. The company counts Charles Hoskinson, the CEO of the firm behind Cardano, as one of its clients.
“In 14 years of owning bitcoin, I’ve never seen a dichotomy like this,” Siemer told CoinDesk in an interview. “The traders are all worried and nervous and hedged, completely neutral or worse. And the long-term people are all extremely bullish.
“There’s a really good chance we’ll be at $200,000 (per bitcoin) this year,” Siemer said. “Do I think we’ll see $1 million dollars per coin in my lifetime? Sure. Not soon, you know, not next year. … The smart, more connected people I know are also really strong. A lot more is going to happen in the next six months than most people realize.”
Topping the list of developments for the coming year is that many jurisdictions — including the US, Russia, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and several European countries — are looking to make major strides in in favor of crypto, according to Siemer. (Wave runs crypto educational programs for various branches of the US government, such as the Internal Revenue Service or the US Marshals Service, as well as other executive bodies around the world; in fact, the practices government is the company’s fastest-growing business.)
These steps, whatever form they take, are likely to have a positive impact on some of these countries’ private sectors, Siemer said. “(Japan or Singapore), those are societies where they really trust and rely on their governments. If their government says it’s okay, it’s actually okay. It’s different in the US where we think our men are idiots.
What is driving the sudden interest in the crypto industry? The massive success of US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), for one, is forcing financial institutions around the world to think of ways to compete. That means spinning off exotic new products, like multi-token yield funds, to make up for the liquidity that BlackRock’s IBIT has absorbed.
“The ETFs were launched in America and they completely destroyed all the bitcoin ETPs around the world,” Siemer said. “They all had terrible products, charging 1.5%. All those guys were crushed.” Regulators, for their part, are likely to be supportive, Siemer said.For example, the European Union could come up with a friendlier version of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).
The chances of finding new strategic bitcoin reserves are also high, Siemer said. “Even if the US doesn’t build a reserve, at least some other countries can,” he added. Not that he is down on the prospects in the US Wave, he said, is currently in talks with seven different states that are considering the matter of creating a reserve, Texas, Ohio and Wyoming among them.
What about the federal government? Siemer puts the odds at slightly better than 50-50, in part thanks to worth nearly $19 billion of bitcoin it already owns.
“That’s a decent start to a bitcoin reserve,” Siemer said. “All they have to do is not sell. It’s more favorable to the tax base than buying, you know, $10 billion worth of bitcoin.”
