Bitcoin (BTC) broke below June support near $98,000 on Thursday, marking its first clear lower high-low low structure on the daily chart since February 2025. The decline deepened on Friday as BTC slipped to $94,500, bringing it within striking distance of the $93,500 yearly open, a level that would completely wipe out its gains for in 2025.
Key Takeaways:
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Bitcoin is at risk of its first weekly close below the 50-week SMA since 2023, breaking a two-year rally.
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The data shows that all major short-term realized price bands have exceeded resistance.
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Short-term holders show losses near the capitulation of 12.79%.
A two-year bitcoin trend is at risk
After defending the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) last week with a sharp rebound over the weekend, Bitcoin is again on track to close below the indicator, unless the price climbs above $101,000 on Sunday.
This level has acted as a structural support since September 2023, defining a two-year climb. A confirmed weekly close below this would not only invalidate that trend but also suggest that BTC’s bullish momentum has weakened enough for a broader correction to form.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler JR mentioned The severity of the breakdown, saying, “With no support left in the market, all major metrics hit resistance,” after BTC lost $100,000 on November 14.
The data shows many short-term holders (STH) have realized price bands, once reliable bounce zones, which now form upper barriers. The STH 1W -1M realized a price close to $102,400, and the STH 1M – 3M band around $98,000 both recovered following more than $1.1 billion in liquidations.
However, cryptoquant CEO Ki-Young Ju highlighted A Possible Stabilization Zone: The Base Cost of Holding 6 to 12 Months near $94,000. A bounce from this level could mark a technical floor, but a decisively higher timeframe near its bottom risks accelerating losses and confirming a bear market.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs bleed $866m in second-worst day on record, but some analysts are still bullish
Can short-term pain fasten the clock?
Data from cryptoquant explained that fall below $98,000 triggered acute stress among new and short-term participants. New investors dropped 3.46%, while those who bought last month sat on a 7.71% loss. Most importantly, the main short-term owner cohort, buyers within the past six months, now face a steep 12.79% loss.
The magnitude of unrealized loss has historically aligned with capitulation phases, where reactive traders sell in fear, deepening corrections but also clearing the path for stronger long-term owners. With the short-term realized profit and loss falling by 13%, the data suggest that the panic may be close to exhaustion, often the final stage before a more stable recovery structure forms.
Related: Bitcoin falls to $98K as futures liquid SOAR: Should bulls expect a bounce?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
