Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) doesn’t need to sell part of its bitcoin stash to cover its debt in the next significant crypto market downturn, according to Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo.
“MSTR Liquidation in the Next Bear Market? I doubt it,” Willy Woo said In an X post on Wednesday.
The Strategy’s debt consists primarily of convertible senior notes. The strategy is set to resolve these changes as they fall due to the payment of either cash, common stock, or a combination of both, at its election.
Safe strategy from getting wiped out in the next bear market
For Sept. 15, 2027 holding date, the strategy will have about $1.01 billion due. To avoid having to sell Bitcoin (BTC) To make up for it, the strategy stock must trade above $183.19, Woo said.
That price roughly corresponds to a Bitcoin price of around $91,502, and assuming a multiple net-asset-value (MNAV) of 1, he added.
Bitcoin analyst Bitcoin therapist said that “Bitcoin will have to perform terribly” in the next market downturn for the strategy to start selling Bitcoin.
“It would be one hell of a prolonged bear market to see any liquidation for the strategy,” they said added. The strategy holds around 641,205 bitcoins, worth about $64 billion at the time of publication, according on Saylor Tracker.
Strategy stock closed trading Tuesday at a seven-month low, down nearly 6.7% on the day to $246.99. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading at $101,377, down 9.92% in the past seven days, according on CoinmarketCap.
Woo tips a chance of a “partial extermination”
While Woo does not expect an end to the next bear market, he warned that it is possible if Bitcoin fails to rally strongly in the expected 2028 bull market.
Related: Bitcoin shows fatigue as analysts say $125k target unlikely by 2025
“Especially, there is a chance of a partial liquidation if BTC does not rise in value quickly in an assumed 2028 bull market,” said Willy Woo.
Some crypto executives, such as Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have predicted that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030.
Magazine: Grokipedia: ‘talking points are far away’ or a necessary antidote to Wikipedia?
