XRP (XRP) has lost more than 40% from hitting a multi-year high close to $ 3.40 in January, and onchain data suggests that downtrend may deepen in future weeks.
“Refusal” before the past 75-90% XRP crash is back
Net not realized that income/loss of XRP (NUPL) Data From the glassnode suggests the token can head for another extended collapse.
The scale, in which the combined -uniquely realized gains or losses of XRP holders, has historically served as a reliable barometer of potential recurrences. In previous market cycles, the NUPL sank into the so -called “Euphoria” zone before the basic prices.
In 2018, the XRP rose above $ 3.00 as the NUPL signed the intense optimization, only dropping 90% to the bottom $ 0.30 as a sentiment that deteriorated by “denial” and “capitulation.”
XRP NUPL Historical Performance Chart. Source: Glassnode
A similar pattern played in 2021 when the XRP hit $ 1.96 before sliding 75% to $ 0.50 in the middle of a sharp move from euphoria to fear.
In March 2025, the NUPL of the XRP re -entered the “denial” zone, with a price trade around $ 2.50 following a strong rally. If the pattern handles, the XRP may face further falling in the same as the bear markets in 2018 and 2021.
XRP/USD Weekly Price chart. Source: Tradingview
XRP is now facing similar risks, trading sideways between $ 1.80 and $ 3.40, following a blistering 585% rally in just two months.
The rally accelerated after pro-Crypto candidate Donald Trump won the US presidency election, as the speculation grew Ripple’s potential success in its SEC lawsuit and the possible approval of a place XRP ETF in 2025.
Related: SEC that drops XRP case is ‘that -priced’ from Trump’s election: Analysts
As a result of these supported grounds, some entrepreneurs said the continued integration of XRP could lead to a breakout. This includes market analyst Stellar Babe, which is expected The price of XRP to get 450%.
The technical fractal suggests XRP is topping out
The weekly XRP chart suggests a bearish fractal from 2021 can reopen.
In both 2021 and 2025, the price of XRP was formed by a local top while the RSI was printed by a lower, signal of bearish divergence and weakening of the reversed momentum.
XRP/USD Weekly Price chart. Source: Tradingview
Back in 2021, the variation preceded an 85.50% seller who broke under 50-week (the red wave) and 200-week (the blue wave) exponential transfer of averages (EMA) supports.
In 2025, the XRP again showed a similar variation of RSI, followed by a 40%-plus decline from recent highs. It is now risks of an extended decline Towards a 50-week EMA around $ 1.58, down about 21.6% from current price levels in June.
If the correction deepens and breaks under the 50-week support of the EMA, the history suggests XRP can even slide to 200-week EMA around $ 0.87, or about 60% from current price levels.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
